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Halfbrick 로고
Halfbrick uses Firebase Predictions to boost retention by 20%
Screenshot of Halfbrick


Halfbrick Studios is a professional game development studio based in Brisbane, Australia. Founded in 2001, Halfbrick has developed many popular games, including Fruit Ninja, Jetpack Joyride, and Dan the Man.


When Halfbrick first learned about Firebase Predictions, they were excited about targeting users based on predicted behavior, rather than historic. Re-engagement is tough, so intervening before a user churned—based on predictions instead of ad hoc heuristics—seemed like a strong strategy

They had been trying to create their own churn prediction models, but like many companies, didn't have the time or resources to properly devote to the problem. Even once they had a prediction model, they found it time-consuming to change the in-app experience on a user-by-user basis.

Screenshot of Halfbrick


Halfbrick already had Firebase Remote Config implemented in their game Dan the Man, so they decided to try Predictions there. They set up a 3-variant experiment testing whether they could boost retention by offering a pop-up with a gift of in-game currency.

Group 0 was the control and received no promotion. Users in Group 1 received the in-game gift based on Halfbrick's existing heuristic: beating level 3. Finally, users in Group 2 received the gift if they were identified by Predictions as 'will churn'. These are the results that Halfbrick saw:

Halfbrick Image

By serving the in-game promotion to users who were predicted to churn, Halfbrick boosted their 7-day retention for that group by 5 percentage points, which equated to a 20% boost. With the success they've seen in Dan the Man, Halfbrick is excited to test out Predictions in their other titles.


20% boost in 7-day active users

Halfbrick 로고

"실험 결과에 따라 전체 사용자층을 대상으로 게임 내 프로모션을 실시하기로 했습니다. 이제 예측에서 '앱을 제거할 것'이라고 식별된 사용자는 골드 코인 2,000개와 가챠 토큰 25개를 선물 받게 됩니다. 다른 게임 타이틀에서도 예측을 테스트해보면 어떨지 기대가 됩니다."

- 미구엘 파스토르, 개발자, Halfbrick